Copyright © 2002 Earth Policy Institute
Population Growing by 80 Million Annually
World population climbed to 6.2 billion
in 2002, up almost 80 million or 1.3 percent from 2001. Population growth
rates soared following World War II as health care improved and death
rates fell. After peaking at 2.1 percent around 1970, annual world population
growth fell to 1.3 percent by 1999. But even while global growth is slowing,
there is a large disparity among the growth rates of individual nations,
and human numbers overall continue to climb.
For at least 25 years, 20 European countries and Japan have had below
replacement-level fertility rates (2.1 children per woman). By now a total
of 44 countries have fertility levels that low. Without the projected
gain of 2 million immigrants a year from developing countries, many industrial
nations would shortly experience population declines.
In much of the developing world, however—home
to nearly 5 billion people—populations
are still growing rapidly. Even with anticipated declines in fertility
rates, the developing world is projected to have 8.2 billion people by
2050. Six countries account for half of the world's annual addition: India
(16 million), China (9 million), Pakistan (4 million), Nigeria (4 million),
Bangladesh (3 million), and Indonesia (2 million).
The 48 countries classified as least developed have even more rapid population
growth. If current trends continue, the combined populations of these
nations will almost triple by mid-century—from
658 million to 1.8 billion. Among the 16 countries with extremely high
fertility rates (seven children or more per woman) are Afghanistan, Angola,
Burkina Faso, Burundi, Liberia, Mali, Niger, Somalia, Uganda, and Yemen.
Fertility rates in countries at the intermediate level, where women have
between 2.1 and 5 children on average, are expected to drop below replacement
level by 2050. This group includes India, Pakistan, South Korea, and Egypt,
which were among the first to realize that rapid population growth makes
it difficult to reach socioeconomic goals. With high population densities
in their most fertile land areas, these countries recognized that fast-growing
populations test the limits of both social services and nature's services.
Although the availability of effective contraception is a key to slowing
population growth, some 350 million women worldwide still lack access
to family planning. Filling the unmet need for family planning could reduce
population growth by as much as a third, given the estimated number of
unintended pregnancies in the developing world.
Fertility inversely correlates with levels of female education and employment.
The more schooling women have, the fewer children they bear. Educating
women and men about family planning services and making such services
readily and discreetly available could profoundly reduce future world
population size and poverty. Government-supported family planning programs
increase access to reproductive and general health care. High per capita
incomes, low child mortality, urbanization, and industrialization also
can play a role in lowering fertility.
At the International Conference on Population and Development held in
Cairo in 1994, parties agreed to fund a 20-year population and reproductive
health program, with developing countries covering two thirds of the bill
and donor countries paying the rest. The total yearly spending was expected
to be $17 billion until 2000, and then climb to $22 billion by 2015. While
developing countries have largely honored their commitment, donor countries
have contributed only one third of their allotted share. The results of
this shortfall are that training and services have not expanded as promised,
which researchers calculate meant that between 1994 and 2000 some 122
million women became pregnant unintentionally. One third of them had abortions.
In addition, an estimated 65,000 unintentionally pregnant women died in
childbirth and 844,000 suffered chronic or permanent injury as a result
of their pregnancies.
Epidemics like HIV/AIDS reduce population projections by increasing morbidity
and mortality and also by lowering fertility. AIDS is altering the demographics
of many countries, especially in Africa. In Botswana, 36 percent of the
adult population is HIV-positive. There, life expectancy has fallen precipitously
from 70 years to 36, and Botswana's total population in 2015 is projected
to be 28 percent smaller than it would be in the absence of AIDS. In Zimbabwe,
life expectancy has dropped to 43 years, and in South Africa, to 47.
Today nearly half the world's people live in cities, where concentrated
populations facilitate disease transmission. Fortunately, high population
densities also enable potentially efficient provision of services such
as health care and education, if there is the political and community
will.
Urban areas are expected to absorb almost all of the population growth
of the next 30 years. After centuries of rural-to-urban migration, three
fourths of people in the industrial world live in cities. Developing countries
are following this same pattern. In 1950, 18 percent of people in the
developing world were urban dwellers. This more than doubled to 40 percent
in 2000, and is projected to reach 56 percent by 2030, when 60 percent
of the world will live in cities.
Almost one third of the world today is under the age of 14. History's
largest generation of young people is reaching or will soon reach reproductive
age, intensifying population momentum. As medical advances allow people
to live longer than ever before, the global population is also aging.
Today more than 606 million people are older than 60—a
number due to reach 2 billion by 2050.
The gap between the U.N. high-growth projections for 2050 of 10.9 billion
and the low-end scenario of 7.9 billion is equal to about half the world's
current population.
With water and land in limited supply worldwide, whether the world moves
to the higher or lower number may have more influence on environmental
and social sustainability than any other variable.
Copyright ©
2002 Earth Policy Institute
OTHER POPULATION INFORMATION FROM EARTH POLICY INSTITUTE
Iran's Birth
Rate Plummeting at Record Pace
HIV Epidemic Restructuring Africa’s Population
Africa Is Dying — It Needs Help
Population Growth Sentencing Millions to Hydrological Poverty
Lester R.
Brown, Janet Larsen, and Bernie Fischlowitz-Roberts, The
Earth Policy Reader (New York: W.W. Norton & Company, 2002).
Lester R. Brown, Chapter 10: "Stabilizing Population by Reducing
Fertility," in Eco-Economy:
Building an Economy for the Earth (New York: W.W. Norton &
Company, 2001).
LINKS
The Allan Guttmacher Institute
http://www.agi-usa.org
PlanetWire.org
http://www.planetwire.org
Population Action International
http://www.populationaction.org
Population Connection
http://www.populationconnection.org
Population Council
http://www.popcouncil.org
Population Reference Bureau
http://www.prb.org
United Nations Population Division
http://www.un.org/esa/population/unpop.htm
United Nations Population Fund
http://www.unfpa.org
United Nations Population Information Network
http://www.un.org/popin
U.S. Census Bureau International Population Database
http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idbnew.html