Copyright © 2002 Earth Policy Institute
Carbon Emissions Climbing
Though economic growth slowed throughout much of the
world during 2001, world carbon emissions from burning fossil fuels continued
their relentless upward trend, surpassing 6.5 billion tons. (See data.)
As a result of the consistent growth of emissions, the atmospheric concentration
of carbon dioxide (CO2) has increased from the
preindustrial level of 280 parts per million (ppm) to today's 370 ppm,
a 32-percent increase. In the last 20 years, the atmospheric concentration
of CO2 has increased at the unprecedented rate
of 1.5 ppm a year.
In 1950, carbon emissions stood at 1.6 billion tons. By 1977, that had
more than tripled, to 4.9 billion tons. In 2000, carbon emissions approached
6.5 billion tons, a quadrupling in just 50 years. Since the atmosphere's
capacity to fix carbon is fairly constant, as the volume of emissions
rises, the earth fixes a decreasing percentage of emissions. The increased
atmospheric concentrations of CO2 and other greenhouse
gases (GHG) trap more of the earth's heat, causing temperatures to rise.
These in turn are responsible for melting ice, rising sea levels, and
a greater number of more destructive storms.
Three fourths of the carbon emissions from human activities are due to
the combustion of fossil fuels; the rest is caused by changes in land
use, principally deforestation. Global energy consumption is projected
to rise 60 percent over the next 20 years. Coal use is expected to increase
by 45 percent, oil consumption by 58 percent, and natural gas by 93 percent,
according to the U.S. Department of Energy. Since coal consumption has
actually declined by 6 percent since its peak in 1996, however, there
is reason to believe its use will either continue to drop or will increase
less than projected. Yet even if coal usage remains steady over the next
20 years, the current level of emissions from all fossil fuels is simply
too high. The increasing use of fossil fuels will only exacerbate changes
in global climate.
According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), atmospheric
CO2 concentrations by 2100 will be in the range
of 650 to 970 ppm—more than double
or triple preindustrial levels. As a result, the global average surface
temperature will likely rise between 1.4 and 5.8 degrees Celsius between
1990 and 2100, an unprecedented rate of increase.
Four major sectors produce carbon emissions. Electricity generation is
responsible for the largest share—42
percent. Transportation generates 24 percent of global emissions. Industrial
processes account for 20 percent, and residential and commercial uses
produce the remaining 14 percent.
Fortunately, changes can be made in each of these sectors to reduce carbon
emissions using readily available technology. Shifting to wind, solar,
and geothermal power for all electricity generation could greatly reduce
the use of fossil fuels. Increased appliance and machinery efficiency
could lower industrial and residential energy use. In the short term,
shifts away from personal vehicles toward mass transit, along with increases
in fuel efficiency, can reduce transportation emissions. And in the longer
term, use of hydrogen-fueled cars and buses could cut emissions even further.
The United States is far and away the world's leading producer of carbon
emissions, with 24 percent of the global total. China is responsible for
14 percent, and Russia accounts for 6 percent. Japan, whose economy is
the second largest in the world, and India, whose population is second
only to China, are each responsible for 5 percent of world emissions.
Various policy measures have been put forward to address climate change
and reduce concentrations of CO2 and other greenhouse
gases. The most prominent is the Kyoto Protocol, which commits industrial
nations to reduce their emissions by at least 5 percent below 1990 levels
by 2008-12. To enter into force, 55 countries representing 55 percent
of emissions from industrial and former Eastern bloc nations must ratify
the treaty. As of early June 2002, 74 countries responsible for 35.8 percent
of global GHG emissions have ratified the protocol, including Japan and
all nations of the European Union. But with the United States and Australia
refusing to ratify, the likelihood that it will enter into force is considerably
diminished.
In the United States, the Bush administration's "Clear Skies" proposal
requires a decline in carbon emissions per unit of economic output (known
as carbon intensity), but not overall carbon emissions. The flawed premise
underlying the proposal is that economic growth cannot be achieved without
significant carbon emission increases; thus "Clear Skies" will not fundamentally
alter the U.S. emissions trajectory. The U.S. economy has consistently
improved its carbon intensity, yet emissions have continued to increase.
According to the American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy, the
carbon intensity of the U.S. economy was cut by 17 percent between 1990
and 2000, yet total emissions increased during that time by 14 percent
due to a 39-percent increase in economic activity.
The Kyoto Protocol, even if implemented, is only a first step. According
to the IPCC, stabilizing atmospheric levels of CO2
at 450 ppm would require fossil fuel emissions to drop below 1990 levels
within a few decades, and eventually to decline to a small fraction of
current levels.
Regardless of the ultimate fate of the Kyoto Protocol, other policy initiatives
show promise. Decreasing or eliminating government subsidies to fossil
fuels, which total $300 billion annually worldwide, can move the energy
economy away from heavy reliance on carbon-intensive fossil fuels. Decreasing
taxes on income while instituting or increasing carbon taxes would constructively
align economic and environmental goals. Increasing funding for further
research and development of clean energy technologies can also help move
the world from a carbon-based and toward a hydrogen-based energy system.
Finally, stabilizing human population sooner rather than later will help
reduce future emissions.
Copyright
© 2002 Earth Policy Institute
OTHER INFORMATION FROM THE EARTH POLICY INSTITUTE
Green Power Purchases Growing by Leaps and Bounds
Earth's Ice Melting Faster Than Projected
This Year May be Second Warmest on Record
The
Rise and Fall of the Global Climate Coalition
BOOKS
Lester R.
Brown, Janet Larsen, and Bernie Fischlowitz-Roberts, The
Earth Policy Reader (New York: W.W. Norton & Company, 2002).
Lester R. Brown, Eco-Economy: Building
an Economy for the Earth (New York: W.W. Norton & Company,
2001).
LINKS
CO2 emissions calculator from Bonneville
Environmental Foundation
http://www.b-e-f.org
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
http://www.ipcc.ch
UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)
http://unfccc.int
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Global Warming Site:
International Emissions
http://www.epa.gov/globalwarming/emissions/international
Worldwatch Institute Climate Mini-Site
http://www.worldwatch.org/topics/climate.html