Update 4: December 18, 2001-4
Copyright © 2001 Earth Policy Institute
This Year May be Second Warmest on Record
Global
temperature data for the first 10 months of 2001 indicate that it likely
will be the second warmest year since recordkeeping began in 1867. Following
the all-time high of 1998, this year's near-record extends a strong trend
of rising temperatures that began in the late 1970s. The 15 warmest years
since 1867 have all come since 1980.
This additional year of temperature data provides further evidence that
a new trend of rising temperature is bringing to an end the period of
relative climate stability that has prevailed since shortly after the
last Ice Age ended and agriculture began some 11,000 years ago.
Monthly global temperature data compiled by NASA's Goddard Institute for
Space Studies in a series based on meteorological station estimates going
back to 1867 show that September 2001 was the warmest September on record.
August and October temperatures in 2001 were each the second warmest on
record.
Based on data for the first 10 months, the global average temperature
for 2001 is calculated at 14.51 degrees Celsius (58.1 degrees Fahrenheit).
The all-time high in 1998 was 14.68 degrees Celsius. (See figure http://www.earth-policy.org/Updates/Update4_data.htm.)
Looking back over the last century, the average global temperature climbed
from 13.88 degrees Celsius in 1899-1901 to 14.45 degrees in 1999-2001,
an increase of 0.57 degrees. Fully two thirds of this gain—more than
0.4 degrees—occurred in the century's two closing decades.
After fluctuating around 14 degrees Celsius (57.2 degrees Fahrenheit)
during most of the century, the temperature has been above this level
every year since 1976. During the last several years, the earth's temperature
has fluctuated around 14.4-14.6 degrees Celsius.
The rise of nearly 0.6 degrees Celsius during the last century is quite
small compared with the projected temperature rise over the next century
of 1.4-5.8 degrees Celsius (2.5-10.4 degrees Fahrenheit) according to
the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Even the lower figure
in that range would be more than double the increase of the last century.
The upper-end projection of 5.8 degrees Celsius would be nearly 10 times
as much.
The contrast in sea level rise for the last century and that projected
for this one is similarly worrying. During the last century, sea level
rose an estimated 0.1-0.2 meters (4-8 inches). The IPCC projects that
during this century sea level will rise from 0.1-0.9 meters (4-36 inches).
The temperature rise of recent decades follows on the heels of rising
atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2), the principal greenhouse
gas responsible for global warming. During the first two centuries of
the Industrial Revolution from 1760 to 1960, atmospheric CO2 levels climbed
from an estimated 277 parts per million (ppm) to 317 ppm—a rise of
40 ppm. But during the four decades from 1960 to 2001, CO2 concentrations
climbed from 317 ppm to 371 ppm, a gain of 54 ppm. (See figure http://www.earth-policy.org/Updates/Update4_data.htm.)
This accelerating rise in recent decades corresponds closely with the
growth in fossil fuel burning during this period.
Rising temperature is not an irrelevant abstraction. It brings countless
physical changes—from more intense heat waves, more severe droughts,
and ice melting to more powerful storms, more destructive floods, and
rising sea level. These changes in turn affect not only such obvious things
as food security and the habitability of low-lying regions, but also the
species composition of local ecosystems.
Agriculture is particularly vulnerable to climate change. For example,
in the summer of 1988, record heat and drought in the American Midwest
pulled the U.S. grain harvest below consumption for the first time in
history. Fortunately for the scores of countries that import grain from
the United States, the nation had a large grain reserve at the time and
was able to satisfy importers' needs by drawing down these reserves.
Climate change affects food security in many ways. In 2000, the World
Bank published a map of Bangladesh showing that a 1-meter rise in sea
level would inundate half of that country's riceland. Bangladesh would
lose not only half its rice supply but also the livelihoods of a large
share of its population. The combination of a population of 134 million
expanding by 2.7 million a year and a shrinking cropland base is not a
reassuring prospect for Bangladesh.
Climate change is also triggering widespread changes in ecosystems. Recent
years have brought heavy investments by governments and environmental
organizations to protect particular ecosystems by converting them into
parks or reserves. But if the rise in temperature cannot be checked, there
is not an ecosystem on earth that can be saved. Everything will change.
An additional year of temperature data reinforces the concerns expressed
by the team of eminent scientists who produced the latest IPCC report,
Climate Change 2001. They make clear what is now becoming obvious even
to non-scientists: that fossil fuel burning is changing the earth's climate.
The bottom line is that altering the earth's climate is serious business—not
something to be taken lightly. We can curb climate change by shifting
from a carbon-based energy economy to one based on hydrogen. We now have
the technologies to do it. The economics are falling into place. At issue
is whether we can restructure the energy economy before climate change
spirals out of control.
Copyright © 2001 Earth Policy
Institute
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
From Earth Policy Institute
Lester R. Brown, Eco-Economy:
Building an Economy for the Earth (New York: W.W. Norton & Company,
2001).
Lester R. Brown, “Rising Sea Level Forcing Evacuation of Island Country,”
Eco-Economy Update, 15 November
2001.
Lester R. Brown, “Climate Change Has World Skating
on Thin Ice,” Earth Policy Alert,
29 August 2001.
From Other Sources
Seth Dunn, “Global Temperature Steady” and “Carbon Emissions Continue Decline,” in Worldwatch Institute, Vital Signs 2001: The Trends that are Shaping Our Future (New York: W.W. Norton & Company, 2001), pp. 50-53.
Goddard Institute for Space Studies, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Earth Sciences Directorate, "Global Temperature Anomalies in .01 C," updated November 2001, http://www.giss.nasa.gov/data.
IPCC, Climate Change 2001. Contributions of Working Groups I, II, and II to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Cambridge and New York: Cambridge University Press). Text and summaries available at http://www.ipcc.ch.
C.D. Keeling, T.P. Whorf, and the Carbon Dioxide Research Group, ""Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Record from Mauna Loa," Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, 13 August 2001, http://cdiac.esd.ornl.gov/ftp/ndp001/maunaloa.co2.
LINKS:
Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center
http://cdiac.esd.ornl.gov
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
http://www.ipcc.ch
International Research Institute for Climate Prediction
http://iri.ldeo.columbia.edu/climate/cid/index.html
National Climatic Data Center
http://lwf.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/ncdc.html
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
http://www.noaa.gov
Scripps Institution of Oceanography
http://www.sio.ucsd.edu
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
http://www.unfccc.de